After calling Bournemouth's win over Manchester City, our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight
Brentford vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm
Brentford are a team that make my job easy. There is a simple formula to apply when it comes to analysing their matches - trust them at home, abandon them on the road.
And the same can be said for Bournemouth, making the case for a Brentford win an easy call to advise when assessing the 7/5 on offer with Sky Bet. It's bet of the weekend material.
The Bees have only lost one of their last 11 home Premier League games, winning four of the last five. Meanwhile, Bournemouth have just one away win from their last seven and have only scored more than once in one of their last 10 road games.
The Bees are a dogged and determined defensive outfit to break down when set up in their low block - and this is exactly the type of defence Andoni Iraola's side have problems against. The draw no bet option on
Crystal Palace vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm -
It's a shame the market has given much more respect to Fulham than usual here as I was hoping to nick another nice price on their win chances. Both teams are priced up at 8/5 with Sky Bet for the win.
Fulham are priced up as the better team with the away factor thrown into the mix so I can let them win at those prices.
I still think it's too soon for this Chelsea team to be consistently challenging those at the top who have seen it and done it in this Premier League for a few years now. There is a mental block for the Blues to overcome in these games, too.
Chelsea are winless in their last 25 fixtures with Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal in all competitions, scoring just 16 goals in those matches.
But Arsenal aren't flowing right now though - that's clear.
There were shoots of promise in midweek against Inter where they created 2.32 worth of expected goals and were unfortunate to lose the game. But even someone like me who is on them for the title is having their faith pushed to the limit right now.
Their threat from set-pieces remains strong, though, and this is where they could win this tight game. Gabriel to score at 6/1 with Sky Bet is of course the standout but Mikel Merino looks to have been signed with his physicality in mind. In six seasons with Real Sociedad he posted 60 headed shots to a per game average of 0.35 - a healthy return.
This Nottingham Forest team are third in the Premier League on merit - it's no fluke when looking at the underlying data. This is a devilishly hard team to beat - but can they sustain it? Well, with these two centre-backs in Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo they stand a chance of a top-six finish. In nine games when they've started together, Forest have conceded just 0.7 goals per 90.
I'd be surprised here if Newcastle better that and score two or more, so Forest on the draw no bet market at 10/11 with Sky Bet looks a tempting price to consider.
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